Security analyst, Adib Saani has warned that the decision by the
president to lift the partial lockdown of Accra and Kumasi is a
dangerous gamble that could backfire.
President Akufo-Addo on
Sunday announced the lifting the 3-week lockdown on Greater Accra and
Kumasi, with effect from Monday, April 20.
Addressing the nation on Sunday, April 19, 2020, the president,
however, stated all other social distancing measures are still in place.
Churches, Schools both Public and Private, will still remain shut.
According to the president, the decision to enforce the 3-week lockdown
was taken to give Government the opportunity to try to contain the
spread of the virus, scale-up effectively the tracing of persons who had
come into contact with infected persons, test them for the virus, and
quarantine those who tested positive and isolate them for treatment.
But in a statement, Mr Saani said the President decision could lead to peak mortality in the next few days.
“It is worth noting that, almost all world leaders including US
President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who
ignored WHO warnings, are licking their wounds today. I am not sure we
would want to get there. Besides, how effective would enforcing the
social distancing protocols be?
“I do appreciate the untold economic and social hardship this lockdown
is posing to the ordinary Ghanaian. But we are in desperate times and
desperate and sometimes draconian measures would have to be adopted for
the greater good of public health and safety,” Mr Saani who is also the
Executive Director at Jatikay Centre for Human Security and Peace
Building noted.
Below is the full statement:
PRESIDENT’S LIFTING OF LOCKDOWN A GAMBLE THAT COULD BACKFIRE
The President HE Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo won international
admiration with his acclaimed statement, “we know what to do to bring
our economy back to life. What we do not know how to do is to bring
people back to life”.
However, the pointless decision to lift the lockdown in Accra, Kumasi
and their environs betrays the President’s own words so far as combating
the novel coronavirus is concerned.
All over the world,
countries are extending lockdowns and even in some cases, making it
stricter. The only situations where lockdowns have been eased or lifted
is when the infection curve is flattened and backed by Science or
empirical data.
In Ghana’s case, the curve seems to spiral upwards with no sign of flattening in the immediate future.
According to a new study by the Imperial College London COVID-19
Response Team, the purpose of a lockdown is to reduce reproduction – in
other words, to reduce the number of people each confirmed case
infects. The goal is to keep reproduction, or “R,” below one (R<1) –
with each case infecting fewer than one other person, on average.
The authors of the study say there are two routes to try to get there;
Mitigation, “slowing but not necessarily stopping the epidemic spread
and Suppression, or basically, lockdown, which “aims to reverse
epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels” by social
distancing the entire population “indefinitely” and closing schools and
universities. The study’s models show that, painful as lockdown may be
for many of us, it works.
Without any lockdown or strict
social distancing measures and enforcement, we can expect peak
mortality in the future. As the World Health Organization (WHO) warned,
Africa could become the next epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak. UN
officials also say it is likely the pandemic will kill at least
300,000 people in Africa and push nearly 30 million into poverty.
It is worth noting that, almost all world leaders including US
President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who
ignored WHO warnings, are licking their wounds today. I am not sure we
would want to get there. Besides, how effective would enforcing the
social distancing protocols be?
I do appreciate the untold
economic and social hardship this lockdown is posing to the ordinary
Ghanaian. But we are in desperate times and desperate and sometimes
draconian measures would have to be adopted for the greater good of
public health and safety. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus previously warned that loosening restrictions ‘could lead
to a deadly resurgence’ in coronavirus across the world.
As
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi put it, “if we see the nationwide
lockdown purely from an economic perspective, then it will surely
appear to be a costly decision. But the cost is of no comparison when
compared to the importance of human life”.
Ghana does not have
to wait for the situation to worsen. Rather we need to act more
aggressively at the time our curve is not showing any sign of
flattening and take steps to try and contain it.
In the end, it is a bitter pill to swallow so we get well. Adib Saani
Security Analyst/Executive Director, Jatikay Centre for Human Security and Peace Building.
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