International research firm Fitch Solutions has projected a minor weakening of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar in the final quarter of 2025, but maintains that the local currency will end the year stronger overall, marking a historic turnaround in Ghana’s foreign exchange performance.
According to Fitch, the cedi, which has appreciated by over 29% since the beginning of the year, is on track to record its first-ever annual appreciation against the dollar despite mild volatility expected in the last quarter.
Currently, the cedi is trading at GH¢12.00 to $1 on the forex market and GH¢10.92 on the interbank market.
“We expect most major Sub-Saharan African currencies to remain broadly stable through Q4 2025 and into 2026… only a slight weakening of the Ghana cedi, Zambia kwacha, Nigeria naira and South Africa rand is anticipated,” the report stated.
The UK-based agency forecasts about an 8% depreciation of the cedi against the US dollar by the end of 2026, projecting an exchange rate of GH¢11.70 on the interbank market.
However, Fitch emphasized that any short-term slippage will be far less severe than the turbulence witnessed in 2023 and 2024, noting that Ghana’s macroeconomic environment has shown signs of stabilization.
“While modest depreciation against the US dollar is likely in the coming quarters, currencies will remain far more stable than during the volatility experienced in 2023 and 2024,” it added.
Fitch attributed the cedi’s resilience to several key factors, including strong gold earnings, robust foreign reserves, and Bank of Ghana’s market interventions.
It further predicted that gold prices will remain high due to global uncertainties, US policy shifts, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Nonetheless, the firm cautioned that Ghana’s central bank will likely moderate excessive appreciation to maintain export competitiveness, suggesting that the cedi’s rally could taper off slightly toward year-end before regaining momentum into 2026.
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