Fitch Solutions Projects Brighter Economic Outlook for Ghana in 2026 Despite Rising Sahel Tensions

Fitch Solutions is forecasting a stronger economic performance for Ghana in 2026, predicting that the country will outpace many other emerging markets as it builds on the gains made this year.

Speaking at PwC’s post-budget forum in Accra on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger, expressed confidence in Ghana’s recent economic improvements. He described the country’s current momentum as “remarkable,” noting that the 2026 national budget reinforces the stability achieved in 2025.

According to him, Ghana’s real GDP growth is expected to edge up from 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% next year. He attributed this to stronger household spending and a recovery in investment activity, which had taken a significant hit in 2023. Fitch Solutions also anticipates that growth over the medium term will remain steady at around 5%, driven largely by domestic demand.

Kruiniger highlighted that Ghana’s projected performance doesn’t only look strong locally but also compares favourably with several major emerging economies. Based on their assessment, Ghana is likely to grow faster than countries such as mainland China, Indonesia, and Kenya in 2026.

However, he also pointed to rising security concerns in the Sahel as a potential threat. The spread of extremist violence in the region, particularly in Mali, has intensified, raising fears about possible spillover effects. While Ghana has remained relatively unaffected so far, thanks to its geography and stronger governance structures, he warned that the situation remains fluid.

“Our expectation is that Ghana will continue to avoid large-scale attacks,” he said. “But any significant infiltration into the northern parts of the country could force the government to increase defence spending, which is currently among the lowest in the sub-region.”

These concerns emerge as Ghana continues to stabilise its economy following debt restructuring efforts, with authorities aiming to keep inflation on a downward path and sustain investor confidence as the 2026 fiscal year approaches.